A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
